Insight - Politics

Rather than try to reduce it by austerity, inflation or default, the government should focus on keeping the rate of economic growth above the cost of servicing the debt. 

Stimulus should be forthcoming and trade uncertainty relieved, even if Congress remains split

The rule of law should prevail and the recovery continue, though a long delay could weaken it

Biden has taken the edge in the polls but previous experience begs the question: do polls really matter? Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, mulls the possible outcomes of the US election and the effectiveness of the UK government’s spending packages. 

Labour’s manifesto is no ‘revolution’, but radical enough to skew economic risks to the downside.

Nobody knows for sure who first coined the maxim that politics, religion and money should never be discussed in polite company. We live in a society where the right to free speech is taken for granted, but as far as advisers are concerned, one thing is certain – the first two topics should definitely be handled with care. 

Clearing the hurdles

With the influence of politics on the global economy growing, could game theory provide a model for success?

UK stocks have underperformed other major developed markets so far in 2018, extending a pattern that has been in place since the June 2016 vote to leave the EU. A longer-term analysis also suggests Brexit isn’t the only thing weighing on UK companies, so why should investors be interested in UK equities now? We think investors are pricing in a fairly negative Brexit scenario, and see UK shares as offering fundamental value and opportunity in differing economic outlooks.