Global markets have been focusing on US rate cuts over the past few months. But investors are increasingly looking to governments to stimulate growth, with a record 57% of fund managers saying fiscal policy is too restrictive, according to a recent survey of fund managers by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
The UK’s first December general election in nearly 100 years punctuated an eventful year for politics and the economy. Financial markets experienced a series of mood swings throughout 2019, but ended on a high as investors regained their appetite for risk. Despite ongoing uncertainty, including Brexit and trade tensions between the US and China, we remain positive about the outlook for 2020.
Please Mr Trump, don't mention the war.
The global economy is sinking into a slowdown, but is this the beginning of the end? It’s too early to tell.
With the influence of politics on the global economy growing, could game theory provide a model for success?
Emerging markets (EMs) threw a ‘taper tantrum’ in 2013 when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) mentioned the idea of gradually reducing its quantitative easing programme. Bond yields increased dramatically and equities suffered as global investors lost their appetite for risk and began to withdraw their money.
Over the past few years, the largest stock market falls have been caused by concerns that China’s fast-paced economic growth could suffer a sharp slowdown. This matters for investors everywhere, given widespread predictions that China will overtake the US as the world’s most important economy. Fortunately, we do not see a slowdown in China as a significant threat for 2018.
Political uncertainty has dominated global events over the past couple of years. Surprise voting patterns have delivered Brexit and President Trump followed by an indecisive UK general election result. A minority government is now negotiating the terms of the divorce from the European Union (EU).