Insight - Economy

We’re living in an era in which human activity is radically changing the planet, according to a raft of scientific data. Bryn Jones, lead manager of our Ethical Bond Fund, explains how this influences his team’s long-term decisions.

Financial markets remained rocky in April amid growing worries about the downside risks to global growth. The one bright spot was company earnings which, by and large, proved better than expected. From here, what matters most for investors is whether there will be a recession. The risks have risen – we’re working with a 30% probability within 12 months – but it’s not our base case and that means we’re staying invested. 

In the midst of an unfolding humanitarian crisis, our thoughts are first and foremost with the people of Ukraine. But with an eye to our duty to our clients, we explain our views on the impact of the war and other big uncertainties investors are facing.

With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggering sanctions and potentially cutting off supplies of fossil fuels, the transition to clean energy just got more complicated.

The war in Ukraine has impacted virtually all commodity prices. Households and businesses are already feeling the effects, notes David Coombs, our head of multi-asset investments.

The risks of higher inflation, and slower growth, have gone up. So too have the number, and the degree, of uncertainties around the possible investment implications of the conflict.

It’s been many years since inflation has given investors something to worry about. Rathbone Income Fund co-manager Carl Stick believes UK equity income sector may be an attractive antidote.

Our multi-asset investment specialist Craig Brown is an old-school New Englander from the northern tip of Essex. His penchant for gridiron leads him into a blitz of crypto ads.

UK policymakers are engineering a big squeeze on UK households this year, warns head of multi-asset investments David Coombs. Globally driven inflation should pass on its own, tightening policy risks making it worse.