2019: the year ahead. Maybe?

Our head of multi-asset investments, David Coombs, gazes into his crystal ball as he prepares for 2019.

New Year 2019 replace 2018 on the sea beach concept

By David Coombs

I have just come back from my honeymoon in the Grenadines (Tracey and I tied the knot in Castle Combe – a village in Wiltshire, not the family seat! – at the beginning of the month).

I love the Caribbean. No Christmas decorations (no street lights or walls to hang them on), no wifi and, most importantly, no Brexit chat! This change of marital status coupled with a hiatus from the endless cycles of the digital world gave me much to reflect on as we enter the new year.

So, in what is now a tradition for this time of year, I’ll try to predict the unpredictable for the next 12 months – see here for last year’s attempt.

These are my 10 predictions for 2019, served – as usual – with a huge pinch of salt:

  1. Amber Rudd to be Prime Minister by Easter or Ruth Davidson by Christmas.
  2. The UK economy enters a protracted recession – Mike Ashley buys every shop on the high street.
  3. Investors give up on complex, quant-driven macro strategies – the world is just too strange!
  4. Incoming Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador will build a wall on his nation’s northern border to keep out US President Donald Trump.
  5. The Fed increases rates only once – the new neutral.
  6. Ten-year gilt yields fall to 0.75% as credit default rates rise.
  7. European stock market value traps will outnumber pot holes on the M4.
  8. The Bank of England will be … well, just irrelevant really.
  9. Volatility will revert to pre-2009 long-term levels – be wary of those efficient frontiers …
  10. Tracey will always be right.